TV

There are 24 posts tagged TV (this is page 1 of 3).

Movie Mind Games: Does manipulating our expectations make movies better? (1 of 3)

Illustration by Sean Nyffeler of Popcorn Noises fame

We spend a lot of time gobbling up media. We want to do fun stuff, and we want to do stuff on the cheap. Such is life in a stagnant economy. One of my go-to, quick and dirty ways to choose one option over the others is to figure out the cost per hour for each of my options, and then choose the one with the lowest cost per hour. 1

Here’s a quick summary of the cost to consume different types of media, shown in ascending worst-case dollars per hour 2 3:

  • Podcast – free – As long as I have iTunes and an internet connection, I can get just about any podcast free of charge.
  • News online – free – Yeah, the NYT has a pay wall now, but they don’t have any news I can’t get for free somewhere else.
  • Video games – $.03 to $1.25 – Angry Birds, Madden, NCAA: they all take so long they end up being really cheap by the time we’re through with them.
  • Books – $.25 to $2 – This one obviously depends how fast you read, but a good old paperback can go a long way on short change.
  • MP3 albums – $.3 to $4 – The trick with MP3s is to find them on sale. The Amazon MP3 store runs sales all the time.
  • Movies – $.50 to $5 – Movies tend to run the gamut because there are so many ways to get them. Prices vary pretty widely from Redbox to IMAX.

Almost any way I slice it, movies are one of the most expensive pieces of the entertainment pie. Looking back at my personal habits over time 4, it’s pretty obvious that I’ve been moving to cheaper and cheaper options over time. This wasn’t a conscious decision, but I have been purposely reducing my spending over the past few years, and I’ve obviously accomplished that by buying cheaper media.

Consuming media isn’t just about being entertained as cheaply as possible 5; I want quality entertainment. It’s not as simple as just consuming some type of media–I also have to figure out which examples of a given type of media to choose. If I’m listening to podcasts, how do I decide which ones? How do I find good books to read? How do I decide which movies to see in the theatre and which ones to rent? How do I know which ones to avoid altogether? The easy answer is recommendations. The trickier answer is expectations.

Recommendations

Over the past decade, recommendations 6 have gone from an informal give and take to a very sophisticated marketing tool, employed by giant companies to boost sales. Amazon, Netflix, Apple’s App Store and many other companies rely on recommendations to keep customers coming back for more. “Recommendation Engines” have become a closely guarded secret and a competitive advantage designed keep customers from switching to a competitor. I’ve bought hundreds of items on Amazon, and I like the recommendations it provides based on my previous purchases. If I start shopping at another online vendor, I’ll have to start over from scratch to get new recommendations. That would be a lot of work, so I’m likely to stay with Amazon for quite a while unless a competitor offers something significantly better or Amazon totally drops the ball.

Many of my social interactions revolve around either sharing recommendations or comparing opinions on different media. For as long as I can remember, I’ve frequently asked friends what they’re into: “Seen any good movies lately?” or “Have you heard the new Girl Talk? How is it?” For almost any kind of media, I have at least one friend who’s practically on speed dial in case I need new recommendations.

I also make a lot of recommendations. I love it when a friend tweets, “Looking for some good books to read this summer. Any suggestions?” It takes me a few questions to figure out what kind of stuff they like, but once I zero in on their preferences I can usually recommend several titles that I can almost guarantee they’ll like. The same goes for music, movies, podcasts and TV shows. Part of being a maven 7 is that I’ve always got a solid cache of information ready to share if someone’s careless enough to open the door for me.

Expectations

The flip-side to recommendations is the expectations they create. If a friend of mine, let’s call him Morris, has successfully recommended 10 documentaries to me without any stinkers, then I expect his next doc recommendation to be a good one. If another friend, let’s call him Les, has recommended five documentaries for me, and all of them have been terrible, then I expect his next recommendation to be terrible and I’ll eventually just stop listening to his recommendations altogether. If Morris and Les both make recommendations to me at the same time, I can safely choose Morris’ recommendations because I expect them to be better. With each recommendation Morris and Les make, I can reevaluate their recommendations as a whole to determine how much weight I’ll give to either recommender in the future.

This is also true for recommendation engines like those at Amazon and Netflix. If Amazon starts recommending stuff that I hate, I’ll take that into account in the future and begin lowering my expectations for the stuff they recommend. Eventually I’ll just stop buying stuff they recommend, and that may remove the exit barrier I described earlier so that I’m comfortable going to another company and starting over from scratch.

There’s a feedback loop of recommendations and expectations. With each new good recommendation I get from a friend, the higher my future expectations will be that the stuff he recommends is worth my time and money. With each bad recommendation I get from a friend, the lower my future expectations will be that the stuff he recommends is worth my time and money. Eventually, I will learn to anticipate exactly how accurate my friends’ recommendations will be.

Recommendations and expectations are part of an adaptive framework wherein each future recommendation carries the weight of all previous recommendations. This feedback loop is only useful if I compare my actual experience to my actual expectations. 8

Utility-Hours Per Dollar

Before I can compare outcomes to expectations, I need a way to objectively measure my general satisfaction with any particular piece of media. Dollars per hour is a good metric to figure out the cost of consuming media, especially if my biggest concern is keeping a budget. It helps me measure efficiency. I might say, “Well, I’ve got three bucks left in my entertainment budget this month. I might as well stretch it as far as I can. What’re my options that are three bucks or cheaper and provide the most entertainment time?” But I’m not just looking for any old media–I want the good stuff. I need a way to account for both efficiency and the relative enjoyment offered by something. Enter this new thing I’m creating called “Utility-Hours per Dollar” (UHD) 9. The UHD allows me to normalize things so that I can compare apples to apples. Yes, going to see a movie in the theatre is really expensive ($5 per hour), but what if it’s the most fun thing I could possibly do with five bucks? That has to count for something, right? Sure it does.

I calculate UHD like this:

  1. Find the absolute cost (in dollars) of the media I’m looking to buy.
  2. Estimate how long (in hours) it will take to consume. 10
  3. Subjectively determine its utility 11on a 10-point scale (1 is for awful stuff, 10 is for incredible stuff).
  4. Multiply the utility number by the number of hours.
  5. Divide that number by the cost, rounded to the next highest dollar. For free stuff, use $1 (not $0). 12 13

For those who like a tidy formula, here it is:

  • UHD = (Utility * Hours) / Dollars

That’s it. Here are a couple examples 14:

  • A really bad movie at the theatre would be $10, last 2 hours and provide a utility of 2:
  • 2 utils * 2 hours = 4 util-hours
  • 4 util-hours / $10 = .4 UHD

  • A pretty good album that I buy on Amazon for $8 might give me 20 solid hours of listening at 6 utils:
  • 6 utils * 20 hours = 120 util-hours
  • 120 util-hours / $8 = 15 UHD

A UHD near zero sucks. A UHD that ends up in the double digits is pretty good. Stuff with a UHD in the mid-to-high double digits is pretty great. Using this metric, I can figure out my most cost effective, enjoyable option for entertainment.

Our trusty UHD chart–we’ll see this again later

UP NEXT, in Part 2: How we all use UHD to decide what to buy, and how we sometimes ignore UHD altogether. [Click here to view the entire piece as a single page.]

2011 Vancouver Trip Recap

I just got back from a two-week trip to Vancouver, so I might as well recap it for posterity. I didn’t do a “diary” because there just wasn’t enough going on to justify that format. It would’ve all been like, “Day N: Woke up and went to Starbucks to do some work. Talked poker and watched my friends play online. Watched Netflix.” I realize that most of what I write is boring, but even I wouldn’t sink so low as to write that particular diary.

So anyway, I stayed with some friends who recently relocated to Vancouver. I went to Starbucks a lot. I talked about, wrote about, learned about and watched a lot of poker. I specifically worked quite a bit on my heads-up game since I’m writing a book about heads-up strategy and both of my Vancouver friends have had very good results in heads-up play.

Otherwise, I went to see three movies: “The Help“, “Drive“, and “Moneyball“. They all appropriately received good scores on Rotten Tomatoes, so I was looking forward to all of them. “The Help” was a good movie with pretty solid acting. The story was the most compelling part, and it was a good story. “Drive” was excellent. It was violent and dark, but very, very good. Some of the acting was excellent, some was just good. “Moneyball” was really good. It’s a great story (as most of Michael Lewis‘ stories are – I’m reading “The Big Short” right now, and it’s excellent). The acting is pretty good. It’s not terribly wonky or sportsy.

As I mentioned above, I also did a lot of reading. I also watched a lot of Netflix (mostly “Parking Wars” and caught up on TV shows online. “Breaking Bad” is awesome this season.)

I also started watching “Top Chef: Just Desserts“, which is another good show from Bravo. I love desserts, I like reality TV, so this show is pretty much made for me. I decided I want to learn how to make good cakes. I mean, I eat more cake than most people, so why not figure out how to make really good cakes? On the bus trip down from Vancouver to Seattle yesterday, I brainstormed some good cake flavor combinations. The one I’m most interested to try is a ginger cake with green tea icing. Hopefully I’ll get to take a crack at that soon.

That about sums up my two weeks in Vancouver. It was nice to visit, especially since I’ve never previously been to Canada. As you can see from the pic, it was mostly dreary and rainy, but at least it wasn’t 90+ degrees and humid. Now I’ve got a day in Seattle, then I head back home to Gainesville.

2011 WSOP Diary: Week 5

Day 26 (July 18): It finally feels like I’m wrapping things up here in Vegas. I spent yesterday working on the book (I’m working on a kind of onerous section that’s pretty crucial to the book as a whole, and it’s tough material to write). I also hit the gym and spent some time reading and watching TV (on my iPad, of course).

Today we’re planning to do more work on the book, and I’m hoping we can mostly finish the first “Part” of the book (the background necessary to get the most of out of the rest of the book). I’ve also got another project that I’m excited to be working on, but I can’t quite make it official with an announcement yet.

I may make a trip to the outlet mall today to get some cheap polos. I managed to save a couple hundred bucks on hotels the last few days, so I might as well blow that money on some new shirts.

As I write this, Ryan Leneghan is the chip leader going into Day 7 of the WSOP Main Event. He was at my table for most of Day 1 and he played very well. It’s strange because he’s almost totally unknown (at least in live poker – I couldn’t find any significant results for him online), but I got the sense he had a lot of experience. My guess is he’s been playing successfully online for a while, but I haven’t verified that. Anyway, this just gives me more ammo to complain about how tough my Day 1 table was. I can now say I had to play against Brandon Cantu, Ryan Leneghan, Adam Schoenfeld, John O’Shea and some other good players at my Day 1 table. And I still managed to finish the day at 50k chips when we started at 30k.

Day 27: Today was my last day in Vegas. Actually, I only had the morning in Vegas before I flew home, lost three hours and got in around 9:00 PM. Nothing much to report today other than the level of nostalgia was particularly low. I rarely miss Vegas when I leave – it’s not really my kind of city when there’s no poker to be played.

I got home and sat around watching TV forever. I have a lot of stuff to catch up on, so that should keep me busy for a few days. Both of my roommates are gone until next week (give or take), so it’s nice to have some time by myself to decompress. I had arranged to have a lawn guy cut my grass twice a month this summer, but I guess he forgot or something because my grass hasn’t been cut since before I left for Vegas. It’s a jungle out there.

It’s time to get back to the regular unemployed life.

2011 WSOP Diary: Week 3

Day 12 (July 4): I did end up playing the Wynn re-buy yesterday, and min-cashed again. Here are my results for the trip so far:

  • (+$231) Rio – $235 – 964 entrants – finished 79 – $466
  • (-$625) Wynn – $625 ($225 plus two $200 rebuys) – 111 entrants, finished around 45 (15 paid)
  • (-$1k) WSOP 43
  • (+$560) Wynn – $425 ($225 plus one $200 rebuy) – 156 entrants, finished 20 – Ran T8o into QQ in the blinds
  • (+$394) Wynn – $425 ($225 plus one $200 rebuy) – 128 entrants, finished 15 – Ran 82o into AKo in the blinds
  • (+$752) Wynn – $425 ($225 plus one $200 rebuy) – 131 entrants, finished 11 – Lost flip w/ 99 < AKo
  • (-$425) Wynn – $425 ($225 plus one $200 rebuy) – 125 entrants, finished 21 (15 paid) – Lost flip with 66 < AQs
  • (+$666) Wynn – $425 ($225 plus one $200 rebuy) – 139 entrants, finished 15 (16 paid) – Ran 84s into KJo

A few thoughts on these results:

  • Overall, I’ve cashed 5/8 tournaments for the trip. Over the long run, 2/8 would be considered “good”, and 5/8 is pretty sick. I’m obviously sort of on a heater.
  • But what these numbers don’t show is that I’ve actually be running bad and not catching cards. The last non-cash at the Wynn (finished 21 when 15 paid), I lost a very big pot with about 40 people left: I had QQ and lost a three-way all-in to TT and 66 (66 won the main pot and I chopped the side pot with TT). Had I won that pot, I would’ve had good chips approaching the money and could have gone to work building my stack. Instead, I was crippled and ended up bubbling in 21st when I lost a coinflip.
  • For my last five tournaments, I’ve listed my bust out hands. I’m running bad in those spots. I got all-in totally dominated once, but otherwise got in on the better side of a coinflip twice, and lost two 60/40s. A big component of my style is that I am rarely all-in and called (at risk to bust from the tournament), so it’s not like I’ve been all-in 10 times before these hands come up. In some cases, this is the first time I’ve actually been at risk in the tournament. I will only lose all four of those hands about 7% of the time, and if I win any of those hands, I’ve doubled up and have a very good chance at making the final table.
  • I’m playing the short stack very well right now. Most of the time I’m on a short stack (such is the nature of this tournament structure), and sometimes very short (like eight big blinds or fewer). Normally, I wouldn’t let my stack get this short, but I’m able to find so many spots to steal blinds and get all-in with the best hand that I’m being more patient than normal. In my last cash, I had under seven big blinds with 21 players left and managed to finish 15th without catching any real hands. Playing the short stack is like that scene in “Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade” where Indie has to walk across the stones that will fall out from under him. (I spent way too long trying to find a good screencapture of Indie stepping across the stones, but just couldn’t find it.) I have to step very carefully and pick each move very wisely or I’m out of the tournament. I’m doing this well right now.

Enough about poker. Today is the 4th of July, and that means… well, I’m not exactly sure what it means. Hopefully the annual party at Mandalay Bay is happening, but I really haven’t heard one way or the other on that. If it’s not happening, I might take my first shot at a $550 mega satellite at the Rio – I need to start trying to win a Main Event seat. It’s kind of a long shot, but the good news is the Wynn has been prepping me to play a super short stack, and that’s what winning megas is all about.

I’m heading over to do some book work with my co-author this afternoon. It’s great to be making real progress while I’m out here. We’re about to wrap up a major section that is the foundation for the entire book, so I’m looking forward to getting that done.

Day 13: Turns out the Mandalay Bay party didn’t happen this year. That was pretty disappointing because I always look forward to seeing old friends and having a nice view of the fireworks on The Strip. Of course, since Vegas sneakily moved fireworks to July 3rd this year, we wouldn’t have had anything to watch anyway.

Since there wasn’t a Mandalay Bay party, a bunch of us went to Mesa Grill at Caesar’s Palace instead. That’s one of my favorite restaurants in Vegas, so I was happy to finally have a meal there. I forgot to get a picture of the spread, but it was ridiculous and delicious.

This morning, I met with my co-author (@VanessaRousso) and her friend Annie (@AnnieDuke) for a few hours to talk about writing and poker. They even discussed a couple interesting hands that Vanessa has encountered at this year’s WSOP. It was really fun to sit and listen to two great poker minds work through hands. (I’m not intentionally name-dropping here, but since I already mentioned this meeting and its attendees by name on Twitter, I figure it would be awkward if I started talking anonymously all of a sudden.) Anyway, it was a very good meeting that clarified some of the unkown parts of the writing process for us.

After that meeting I tried to hoof it over to the Rio for the $1,500 WSOP event to late-register, but by the time I got there the tournament was already an hour in, and the line was too long to justify registering. So I went to the Wynn and started 30 minutes late there. I actually played pretty well, but didn’t cash (finished 32 and 13 paid). I busted making a pretty risky move, but I saw it as a good chance to pick up dead money, and it just didn’t work out. Sometimes there’s a good spot to make a move, but you run into pocket Kings.

I busted out, then went to dinner with Luckbox Larry and wife at a pretty nice Indian place called Mint. We hadn’t been there before, but we all liked it a lot and will probably go back. We’ll be more inclined to return if we can find more coupons, of course.

I ended up turning in early because I was feeling under the weather again. I think I actually got a cold or something this time, so I figured the best thing was to take it easy. I ended up sleeping for like nine hours, which is a long time for me.

Day 14: Today I was going to do my normal routine of waking up, going to Starbucks to read the news and catch up on writing. But after about 20 minutes Luckbox Larry texted me to let me know there was a 10:00 AM $550 Mega Satellite to the Main Event. I decided to go ahead and play that so I could get some poker in without making me miss the Rally to End Cancer kickoff party hosted by my friends Vanessa and Chad at MGM. Turns out I made it exactly one hour into the stupid thing when I ran QQ into AK and lost the coinflip.

I spent the middle of the day sleeping off my cold. Then went over to MGM for the kickoff party. It was a good time. Vanessa’s husband Chad was recently diagnosed with and underwent treatment for a very rare form of cancer, so they have a real stake in cancer research and they’re aggressively pursuing ways to further cancer research. It was cool to see people coming together to talk about raising money for cancer research, and I think the event they’re planning is going to be pretty neat.

(Note that pic was just before the party started – the place eventually filled up, but I forgot to snap a pic.)

Day 15: Today was pretty unfun. I decided to play the Wynn re-buy and busted out of that pretty early when I ran AJo into AA against a very aggressive player who 3-bet me from the button at a 6-handed table. With our stack sizes and respective images, this is the equivalent of a cold deck – he has Aces almost none of the time in that spot, and I’m often raising hands I can just fold there. But AJ was probably ahead of his range, and I could get him to fold some hands that had me slightly beat (77/88). Even the way he turned over his Aces basically said, “Yeah, I know. But I actually have them this time.”

Later on, I went to dinner with some friends. Luckbox Larry won a bet so that Dan had to buy him a $60 burger at a place at Mandalay Bay. So we went over there and had good burgers and shakes while Luckbox Larry ate his foie gras burger with shaved truffle. I understand that’s supposed to be an awesome burger, but the smell of truffles kind of grosses me out.

It looks like I’ll be playing the Main Event this year (the details are still not nailed down, but it seems likely), so I’m started to try to get mentally ready to play that event. The WSOP Main Event is totally unique in that it’s a very deep structure (you start with 30,000 chips at 50/100 levels, and the levels are two hours each) and there are thousands of entrants, most of whom really don’t know how to play poker. It’s basically the optimal structure for me as I’m very comfortable in slow, deep stacked tournaments. But I also need to get my head right because I’ve been running pretty bad, and I’ve been playing really, really fast tournaments since I got here.

Day 16: I took it easy today to try to get my head right for the Main Event. I think I’ll probably play, but I’m not entirely sure. There are still some things that need to fall into place for it to work out. I’d really like to play, but I won’t be devastated if I don’t get to play.

Anyway, I got a good workout in today, and spent the rest of the day reading and watching TV and stuff. Netflix on iPhone/iPad/MacBook is keeping me sane out here. I’ve watched most of “Dead Like Me” Season 1, and I’m almost finished with Cheers Season 2. Both are pretty good shows for very different reasons.

I’ve been reading Annie Duke’s book “Decide to Play Great Poker” (Amazon link below), and it’s pretty good so far. It’s a high-level book focusing on concepts and ways to think about the game rather than a step-by-step guide to playing poker. I’ve already seen a few ways to think about stuff differently, so that’s been helpful. I think one thing it does well is focus on high-level concepts – it stays out of the weeds of math and really technical discussions. So far, so good. (Jump to the bottom of the post for a link to the book on Amazon.)

I had In-N-Out again tonight. We went at like 9:00 PM, expecting the place to be mostly empty. It most definitely was not empty. I couldn’t believe how many people were getting burgers late at night. That place must be printing money.

Zooming out a little bit, I realized I haven’t really described like my overall schedule out here. It’s actually pretty simple and repetitive. I think that’s actually kind of obvious in my recent posts, which are shorter and less detailed. I’m basically doing the same thing over and over again each day. Occasionally something will jump up and change the routine, but I’m more or less living a strange version of Groundhog Day.

I generally wake up between 8:00 and 9:00 AM, get ready for the day and head to Starbucks to catch up on reading and update the diary. I hang at Starbucks for a couple hours and then start trying to find some lunch around noon. Sometimes I just go back to the hotel room and make a PB&J, but I’ll also go meet friends for lunch or whatever. Then I try to figure out if I’m playing poker, writing or relaxing for the rest of the day. Most of the time, I’ve played poker, and I’ve probably had an even split of relaxing and writing for the rest of the time. If we’re writing, we usually break around dinner and then take it easy the rest of the evening. If I’m playing poker, I’m hoping to make the dinner break and then head to the final table (which hasn’t happened for me yet). Then it’s back to the hotel to read and watch Netflix. Then time to sleep and start over again.

It’s pretty unexciting except when I go to a new restaurant or have a meeting or something to break up the routine. Sometimes a friend will be making a deep run in a tournament, or a friend of a friend will be at a WSOP final table and I’ll head over to watch them play and provide support for a while. “Support” can just be hanging out, watching them play (it’s always encouraging to know some friends are keeping an eye on you when you’ve been playing for 10 hours and you’re starting to get tired). “Support” can also be doing reconnaissance around the bubble, and as they approach a final table.

On the money bubble, it’s helpful to know where the short stacks are and to get a sense of how long the bubble will last. When we’re playing online, we can just go look at the leader-board for that stuff. But it’s tougher to get that information when we’re playing live. So the person doing the recon might wander off, then stop by and say, “Two micro-stacks on that table over there. And on that other table, a stack shorter than yours will take the big blind in the next hand.” This information can help shape the correct strategy at that moment, so it’s very helpful. Occasionally, we’ll have a history with some of our friend’s opponents, or we’ll spot tells on people, and we can share that info.

Day 17: It’s 10:15 PM and I still don’t know if I’m playing the Main Event tomorrow. Some of the pieces have fallen into place, but some haven’t. So, I’ll find out for sure tomorrow morning. I’m ready to play if all of the pieces fall into place, but I’m content to pass on it if things aren’t just right. The Main Event has happened every year for a few decades now, and I’m sure it’ll go on happening every year for several more decades, so there’s no rush.

Today was a relaxing day. I didn’t do much but sleep, eat and read. I met some friends for dinner, but otherwise stayed pretty close to my hotel room for most of the day.

As of this writing, Luckbox Larry has put together a pretty big stack in the Main event. He has 77,000 chips and average is probably somewhere around 40,000. It’s too early to know how significant this is, but he’s a good player and having a big chip stack can only help him.

I’m going to watch some TV and then get some sleep. I could have a pretty big day tomorrow.

Day 18: It’s almost 10:00 AM on the final Day 1 (Day 1D) of the WSOP Main Event and I just confirmed that I’m playing it. A quick overview of what this really means:

  • There will probably be about 6,000 players. Maybe 1,000 are good players. Another couple thousand are decent. The rest are just people looking to have a good time and take a shot.
  • I’m well above average in this field. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but this structure is basically made for my style. I think it’s reasonable to expect I’ll cash about 25% of the time (which is well above a “normal” cash rate in normal tournaments, even for a good player). Of course, that means 75% of the time I probably won’t cash. This isn’t pessimism, it’s just how tournaments work.
  • I probably won’t be on TV. It’s possible, but there will be about 2,000 people in the field today and there is one feature table. There MIGHT be a second feature table, so maybe 20 people will be on TV. The deeper I go in the event, the more possible it is I could be on TV, but it continues to be unlikely.
  • There will be eight days of play before the final table. Those days won’t happen consecutively because there are so man players. My first day is today (July 10), and Day 8 will be July 19 (they’ll play down to the final table that day). So this could be the beginning of a very long poker tournament. Here’s the structure sheet.

Ok, time to go register. Hopefully I’ll update this post with good news in about 15 hours (when Day 1D is over). Until then, here’s what it looks like to turn cash into a seat at the Main Event:

UPDATE: Sure enough, I made it through Day 1D with about average chips. We started the day with 30,000 chips and I finished the day with 50,025. I’m VERY satisfied with this result for a lot of reasons. I made a bad call during the first level and finished that hand with 23k (my low point so far). But I also had a VERY difficult table today, and managed to chip up despite my bad table. There were three well-known pros at my table for most of the day, and there were a couple other guys who I suspect were pros (probably online pros). All three of the initial known pros (Brandon Cantu, Adam Schoenfeld, John O’shea) ended up busting before the end of the day, and I managed to grow my stack to 60k at one point. Considering how soft the WSOP Main Event field is, this was a pretty unlucky table for Day 1.

I should say I also caught some hands today. I had Aces three times in one level (but only won three small pots, all pre-flop). I also had Kings a couple times and Queens a couple times. So, I did catch some cards, but they didn’t do me much good at my tough table. (Of course, I’ll take cards whenever I can get them.)

So, we start back Tuesday morning and I’ll have an average chip stack. My next goal is to make Day 3.

I love technology probably at least as much as you, you see…

Yesterday night, I busted from a tournament at the Wynn (I min-cashed), but decided to stick around because a friend was still playing and I wanted to offer support (known as sweating or railing in the poker parlance). Fortunately, I had my Burro Bag with me, and the Burro Bag holds many ways to kill time: Books, iPad, Macbook. I usually read when I’m just sitting around, sweating a tournament, but I decided to watch TV instead.

The iPad came out, and I watched the final episode of This American Life Season 1 on Netflix, then watched an episode of Cheers (I’m mid way through Season 2), then switched over to the HBO GO app to see what I could find there. I decided to watch a documentary called “Hot Coffee” (a good documentary about tort reform, our litigious society, etc.) from their series of documentaries that’s airing every Monday night.

As I was watching that episode of Cheers, it hit me: I’m watching HD TV on a portable device that’s smaller than a Dr. Seuss book. There’s a scene in the episode (Coachie Makes Three) where Sam and Diane finish eating dinner, then Sam decides to watch some TV. So he pulls out this big, clunky portable TV that plugs into the wall. I’m guessing the screen on it was something like 7″. He plugs it in, plunks it down on the coffee table and kicks back on the couch to “check some scores out on the tube”. Of course, then Coach shows up because “Thunder Road” is on TV, and Sam and coach never miss Robert Mitchum when he’s on TV.

That’s when it hit me that I could do that now, only I don’t have to plug it in, I’m watching HD TV, and I can choose from a giant catalog of shows whenever I want rather than choosing between the five or six channels Sam probably got in 1984. Today, it’s not a problem if I miss something when it first airs – I can always just go watch it online later. It sort of blew my mind a little, and I saw this coming in 2009. Sort of.

In 2009, I definitely expected Apple to make the iPad. I also expected it to be used a lot as a portable media player. But I envisioned people mostly loading up movies and TV shows into iTunes, syncing the iPad and then taking it with them. I didn’t think we’d be streaming HD TV OTA less than two years later. Yes, I was using the Wynn’s WiFi network (which is hi-speed and free to anyone at the Wynn), but when I went back to my room at the Rio a little later, I continued watching “Hot Coffee” tethered to my iPhone 4, over 3G. If I weren’t so cheap, I could’ve cut out the middle man and just bought the 3G iPad, which would let me stream directly to the device without an iPhone. What?!

Ten years ago, it was a big deal to check email on a cell phone. Eight years ago, it was a big deal when ESPN Motion was “streaming” highlights on ESPN.com. (That’s where I first saw streaming video online.) Six years ago, it was a big deal to stream low-quality video on YouTube. Three years ago, it was a big deal when Netflix and Starz teamed up to start offering streaming movies, on demand. But all this required some kind of PC with an internet connection.

Up to this point, there were ways to stream video over the air, but they were tricky, unreliable and definitely not mainstream. Then, about a year ago, Netflix came out with an iPhone and iPad app that would let subscribers stream content over 3G. No more land-based internet connection required. Not only that, but (assuming the 3G connection was solid), it was high quality video. Over 3G.

The rate of innovation is stunningly fast to me. When I first saw ESPN Motion, I thought, “This is awesome, but how will they eventually stream real content? Live content? Decent quality video?” I thought it was a very big technical challenge because video was just so data intensive, and streaming audio over the internet was still pretty new. Compressed audio (MP3s) would stream, but it was a little unstable and required patience. Video took up much more bandwidth than audio, and I didn’t see how the tubes would get fat enough to squeeze that much data into a connection.

It was a significant technical challenge, but what I didn’t anticipate was a convergence of technologies: faster, more efficient internet connectivity and better and better compression and buffering algorithms for streaming video. I’m still not actually sure how video is compressed and high quality. But some engineers figured it out and instead of waiting for the bandwidth to catch up with the data requirements, we managed to simultaneously increase bandwidth and reduce data requirements by compressing video.

And now I can sit around anywhere watching TV on my iPad to kill time while my friend wins a tournament. Pretty cool, right?

Off to Vegas for the 2011 WSOP!

You may know that I’ve gone to Vegas once a year for the past several years. I think I’ve been every year since 2006, but I’m not positive about that. In 2009, I spent six weeks there. The other day, I realized that Vegas is the city I visit most frequently (aside from Jacksonville, which is 90 miles away and is where my family lives). This really doesn’t make sense at all – Vegas is essentially the opposite of all things Josh. Of course, it helps that there is some incredible food to be had (if one doesn’t mind visiting some super sketchy neighborhoods).

But here I go again, drawn to Vegas to play poker and visit friends. Before I go, I’m posting about what I’ll be doing (so my friends and family know what’s up). I’m also soliciting suggestions on how I can share the experience with all three of you that read this blog. (Haha, just kidding! There are at least 10 of you.)

What I’ll be doing

I’ll mostly be playing poker and writing “the book”. The WSOP is going on right now, so I’ll play some of the smaller No Limit tournaments and try to win a satellite for a seat into the $10,000 Main Event (the one they show on TV every year). The smaller WSOP tournaments I’ll play will range from a $1,000 to $2,500 buy-in. I’ll also play some other tournaments around Vegas, ranging from $200 to $1,000 buy-ins. I’ll start with the smaller ones to tune up since it’s been a while since I played live poker (or poker at all, really). I’d really like to play the $10k this year – that tournament is almost customized for my style, and I could make a deep run with a little luck.

“The book” is a poker book I’ve been co-writing for about 18 months. It’s about how to use game theory to build a dynamic tournament strategy that can be adjusted as the game changes over time. It’s a lot about the underlying principles and the “whys” of winning tournament poker. A friend of mine is a professional poker player, and she asked me to co-author the book with her because I know her strategy and style very well, and because I’m comfortable writing. I’m hoping we can do some serious work on the book while we’re both in Vegas this summer. It’s a very big project that simply requires time and coordination to keep it moving.

Give me some feedback – what can I do to share the WSOP experience with those who aren’t there?

I get a lot of questions about the WSOP: what it is, what it’s like, and all that. I think it would be fun to use the blog (and Facebook and Twitter) to share a little of the WSOP experience (and maybe my Vegas experience), but I’m not exactly sure how to do that. [Wow, that sentence is terrible.] I could blog, take pics and maybe shoot some video. I’m sure there are other ways I could share the experience as well.

If you want to see what it’s like to at the WSOP, leave me some comments with suggestions on ways I can share. I’ll see what I can put together!

Book recommendations for a buddy

A friend of mine recently called to ask if I would recommend some books for him. He wanted me to recommend good stuff that he was probably supposed to read in high school, but didn’t. He also mentioned that he wanted to read stuff that might be be fodder for allusions and pop-culture references. Finally, he’ll be listening to these books on audio books, which he’ll borrow from the library. Here’s what I recommended:

  • Animal Farm – Very short political allegory about the Russian Revolution.
  • A Prayer for Owen Meany – Long, but an excellent, excellent story. Occasional language, but not much at all.
  • Catcher in the Rye – Medium length, good, classic story. The language is occasionally kind of rough because it’s written from the perspective of a teenage boy.
  • 1984: This is a pretty long book, but it’s referred to a lot (both directly “Man, that’s straight out of 1984!” and indirectly, “That’s totally Orwellian!”). It’s very interesting, but dry reading.
  • Fahrenheit 451: Shorter book, and a pretty interesting read. It’s about censorship and how governments try to control people… I think one of the more interesting aspects of this book was that it was written in the 50s as a futuristic book, and some of the author’s predictions into future technology are spot-on.
  • Scarlet Letter: This is prototypical “Early American Literature”. It’s a medium-length book, pretty dark story. This is alluded to pretty frequently (I just saw it referenced on a TV show a couple nights ago).
  • Catch-22: This is a very, very funny book. Heller’s sense of humor is almost exactly like mine (very dry, sarcastic), and he’s a fantastic writer to boot. It’s basically a satire of the American military. It’s pretty long, but very good. I think there may be some mildly “dirty” content… it is about soldiers after all!

I was careful to let him know when a book might contain cuss words or otherwise risqué language because he has two young kids and I’d hate for him to be cruising along with his two-year old, listening to Catcher in the Rye when Holden drops an F-bomb, dirtying up junior’s vocabulary forever.

That is all.

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Women’s College Softball will be big

I’m not kidding. I just turned on ESPN, which is currently showing College Softball, and immediately thought, “What are all these pretty girls doing on TV? Oh look, they’re playing softball! … … … Softball isn’t such a bad sport. Did she just make a diving catch?! … … … She’s cute.” They even do a bio for each player.

Reasons it will be big:

  • There are pretty girls
  • The pretty girls look very, very serious, which escalates the unintentional comedy factor and sometimes makes them even prettier
  • It’s on during the off-season for football and basketball
  • The sport gets significant TV time (because of the previous point)
  • This seems like the kind of pseudo-cult thing that twenty-something and college guys love
  • The game is slow enough that viewers can actually get to know each player
  • It’s a lot like baseball, but not handicapped by the things that make women’s basketball so unwatchable

I’m going to open a Women’s College Softball merchandising company now. It would really help if someone made a mocumentary-type movie about Women’s College Softball (a la Dodgeball)… I’ll start working on that, too.

EDIT: There are even girls who get a running start before they swing, like Happy Gilmore hitting a golf ball! How did I miss this for so long?

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Spanglish

What a super movie. I really enjoyed it and my appreciation for Adam Sandler grew quite a bit as the movie went on. I already liked his work, but I think this may be his best all-around performance yet. Though this isn’t exactly the kind of thing I’d like to write, it’s pretty close. I mean, I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if I was capable of writing this screenplay. Unfortunately, I’m not even really capable of writing about writing this screenplay, so I’ll stop now.

Mignon

So, a friend and I went to a fancy restaurant tonight and it was good eatin’. A little on the pricey side, but nothing outrageous. The steak was so good, I was savoring every bite. It was really nice to get out and enjoy myself for a change since I usually spend Friday night on the couch, watching TV and playing poker. If I’m feeling really frisky, I’ll sometimes go to Starbucks and read.

Basketball on the rebound (yes, I’m very clever)

Today, I ran full-court (well, short-court and four-on-four) for the first time in several months. Overall, I played pretty well, but the competition wasn’t all that great. It’s not that I was super good, just that most of the guys I ran with didn’t really know how to play too well. Simple concepts like switching on a screen and boxing out weren’t being used at all. I made some good shots, passed the ball well, got up and down the floor better than I thought I would and got away with only a few minor injuries (a sore elbow and a sprained wrist). By the time the league starts up in June, I’ll be ready to go.

I’m looking forward to the weekend.